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EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
MORE ACCURATE THAN
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By Dajiong Lu BRIEF INTRODUCTION
The method of earthquake prediction introduced in this book is not only in the aspect of time with astonishing accuracy, but also in the aspect of space it is a kind of technology for remote measurement under certain conditions, namely, people can predict strong teleseisms successfully which may be over several thousand kilometers away from local station of earthquake prediction. Mr. Yasuhiro Nakasone, Former Prime Minister of Japan, in his title as a Japan Cabinet Prime Minister said in a letter after he had read this dialogue of earthquake prediction in the Chinese version: “… (your book) attracts readers so much just due to its excellent theory, I am very interested in it after reading, …” Prof. J. Tarney, the Director of the department of Geology, University of Leicester, U.K. reported to the British Council that: “ Dr. Lu Dajiong (the author of this book) is clearly a first-rate scientist….” This book could be used as a reference for professionals of earthquake prediction, but it is also especially suitable for numerous teenagers who have lively intellectual hunger. |
Dajiong Lu graduated from the Physics Department of Nankai University in
1962. After graduation, he carried out research on laser physics and
laser technology in the Institute of Physics, the Chinese Academy
of Sciences.
In 1976, a large earthquake of Ms. 7.8 occurred in Tangshan. Lu began
his research on earthquake prediction using a laser phase-locked
strainometer, two bedrock earth-current recorders, an electromagnetic
radiation envelope recorder, and meteorological instruments.
In 1984, he was appointed Director of the China New Technology
Development Institute, and Chairman of the Council of the Chinese
Association of Frontier Sciences. He was concurrently appointed as a
research fellow of the institute.
In 1985, he established the Applied Physics and Seismology Laboratory
within the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In 1986, he was made an
associate research fellow by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
In 1980 and 1982, he was invited to visit Nara City and Nagano in Japan;
in 1984, he went to Athens, Greece to participate in the International
Conference on Earthquake Prediction; in 1985, he was invited to
participate in the 23rd General Assembly of the International
Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior in Tokyo,
Japan; in 1987, he presided over the second International Conference on
Earthquake Precursors held in Beijing.
In 1988, he was invited to participate in the Third International
Conference on Earthquake Precursors in Italy.
In 1990, he participated in the 22nd General Assembly of the European
Seismological Commission in Barcelona, Spain.
In 1991, he participated in the International Conference on “Earthquake
Prediction: State-of-art” in Strasbourg, France.
In 1993, he was invited to Nccosc in San Diego, U.S.A. and “Geomonitor”
magazine in U.S.A. introduced Prof. Lu: “Quake Forecaster from China.”
In 1994, he was invited to visit the University of North Carolina and
Duke University, and gave them a formal lecture of earthquake
prediction.
He has published 50 papers and two books.
His main contributions in the field of earthquake prediction have been
as follows: determining the space and time characteristics, and the
space and time distinguishing characteristics; advancing the law of the
correlation between precursors of teleseism and near earthquake; this is
the first time that successful prediction of the three elements of some
strong teleseisms was made; some condition under which teleseism can be
predicted were defined. He has established a framework of
phenomenological physics for impending earthquake prediction.
His research work has obtained some high values from Prof. J. Tarney, of
the U.K., Prof. K. Alexopoulos, an academician of the Greek Academy of
Sciences, Yasuhiro Nakasone, Prime Minister of Japan.
On February 2, 1998, Prof. Dajiong Lu immigrated formally to U.S.A. as
an excellent scientist. On June 20, 2003, he become a citizen of the
United States of America.
Prof. Lu wishes to cooperate with all circles of people in all over the
world. It would be very useful for promoting the development of
earthquake prediction undertaking of the whole world.
Prof. Dajiong Lu
1840 Santa Ysabela Dr.
Rowland Hts., CA 91748
U.S.A.
E-mail: dajionglu@hotmail.com
Website: www.8886.net/lu
PREFACE
A catastrophic earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurred at South Asia on December 26,2004, total casualty about 300,000. This is another human tragedy after Tang-Shan earthquake in China of magnitude 7.8 on July 28, 1976, in which 240,000 human lives perished.
Now, it is almost 30 years after the Tang-Shan earthquake. I started my research on earthquake prediction since 12th day after the Tang-Shan earthquake. Before long, I have made considerable progress in the field of earthquake prediction. The research results were in my book titled "Impending Earthquake Prediction" and my paper also presented at the international conference in Europe.
It is really to my dismay that today after 30 years this research results were not used and further developed, so that the South Asia earthquake and Tsunami were not predicted as I stated in my article that "Earthquake prediction should be more accurate than weather forecast".
Because of this, I feel it is necessary to write this popular and easy-understood book to introduce my thought, theory and methodology of earthquake prediction to the people. Any comments, criticism from geophysicist, geologist, scholars, students and those who care about earthquake prediction will be appreciated.
THREE EXAMPLES OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION:
First example:
I think it would be wonderful if there was Internet in 1976. Everybody could
enjoy my earthquake prediction at that time.
For example:
Around 10:00 a.m. Nov. 30, 1976, many people from the Beijing
Seismic Brigade and the Chinese Academy of Metrology Research came to visit
my earthquake prediction station which was located near Miyun Reservoir in
the suburb of Beijing. While they were coming into my Laboratory they saw
the tail of strong teleseism wave which had been recorded by my laser
phase-locked strainmometer. At that time, I pointed at the seismic wave
recorded by a tremble needle and said that: "Yesterday I predicted to Miyun
Reservoir Earthquake Observation Station that at 9:04 a.m. tomorrow a strong
teleseism (namely , far away from Beijing) would occur in the earth. This is
the seismic wave of magnitude 7.9 of Chile, its arrival time was 9:00 a.m.
The time difference between its arrival time and the occurrence time
predicted by me is 4 minutes." They were very surprised and can not believe
and ask the staff member of Reservoir Earthquake Station. Mr. Sun Shihong,
the technician of station verified that it is true!
(Excerpt from the new book "Earthquake Prediction: more accurate than
weather forecast", P.28)
Dear Cal Orey:
Don said that the occurrence time of that earthquake was: 1976 11 30 00:40:57.8 (I think it is Greenwich time).
The time difference between Beijing local time and Greenwich time is 8 hrs. Namely
1976 11 30 08:40:57.8 (Beijing local time).
Don said that 'it would take... about 19 min to reach the Seismographs in China from the quake that occurred in Chile...".
Ok! let's add 19 min to it: 1976 11 30 08:59:57.8 (after adding) In my post, I said on Nov. 30, 1976 09:00 (arrival time). The
error was 0.2 second.
Please tell Don. Thank you!
Dajiong Lu 7/4/2006
The second example:
The first example I posted to www.earthquakeepi-center.com?passing through
Cal Orey was the earliest history of my earthquake prediction. At that time,
I could predict the exact time of teleseism occurrence, but could not
predict the epicenter. Afterwards, through my research, I could predict
three elements (including epicenter) of some teleseisms successfully. For
example:
On March 6, 1978, I made a report to the Shock Prevention Office of the
Headquarters of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army and
forecast that around 10:00 a.m. on March 7, 1978, an earthquake of magnitude
over 7 would occur near Japan.
Outcome: the earthquake of magnitude 7.5 occurred in Japan Sea at 10:48 a.m.
on March 7, 1978. The time difference was 48 min.
After I published my book in Japanese version, many Japanese people called
to Japan Publishing House and asked that "Is it true? Is it true? Foreigner
Dajiong Lu predicted our Japan Earthquake successfully? Japanese Prof. Hideo
Toriyama told me this story.
The third example:
It was a pity that there was no Internet in 1978. Everybody couldn't enjoy
my exact earthquake prediction at that time. So right now I excerpt the
third example of earthquake prediction from my book "Earthquake Prediction:
more accurate than weather forecast", I hope it would excite everybody. It
shows my method of earthquake prediction not only can predict teleseism but
also near earthquake. Third Example:
In the evening of June 10, 1978, I analyzed from the data of earthquake
precursor that a near earthquake would occur tomorrow. " and got up at 4:00
a.m. in the morning of June 11 ".
I made a phone call to the duty office of Physics Institute immediately: "A
near quake of magnitude 5 would occur around 13:18 today. The epicenter
would be 200 km away and S-E
direction from Miyun Station " The duty officer reported to the leader " of
Physics Institute and asked that if report to the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (C.A.S.). " answered: "Yes, of course". ... Then the duty officer
of the C.A.S. reported to the leader of the C.A.S. also and asked that if
report to the State Bureau of Seismology. The answer was: "Yes, of course".
So a lot of people worked in the State Bureau of Seismology observed around
the seismograph at the occurrence time I predicted.
Outcome, an earthquake of magnitude 4.8 occurred in Lei-Zhuang at 12:29 and
another earthquake of magnitude 4.4 occurred in Lei-Zhuang at 13:52. The
center time between two quakes was 13:10. The time difference between the
center time and occurrence time predicted by me was 8 minutes. In energy
summation of two quakes was equal to the energy of earthquake of magnitude
5.
(Excerpt from the new book "Earthquake Prediction: more accurate than
weather forecast",
P.29)
Please E-mail to
dajionglu@hotmail.com for ordering this new book. Thank you!
Any comments, criticism from geophysicist, geologist, scholars, students and
those who care about earthquake prediction will be appreciated. Thank you
again!
Dajiong Lu 7/21/2006
